For those who were directed here by my link on Yahoo! Answers', thank you for coming. Feel free to skip ahead to where Yahoo! Answers cut me off. I will mark the spot where you should pick up where you left off with a long line of --------- so that you can scroll quickly and find it. Thank you again for trusting my writing enough to spend the time reading this. I know it's a pain being redirected to a new website just to read something. I hope you find it worth it, I think it is.
It's a tall order. No doubt about it. I am very bored and have a couple of hours to kill, so I'm going to piece together the MOST PLAUSIBLE possible way for Roger Federer to slowly overcome the ridiculous gap between himself and Rafael Nadal in order to reclaim the world No. 1 ranking.
RIGHT NOW (Gosh I wish they had the option to make bold letters here, caps look so aggressive)
Rafael Nadal: 11880
Roger Federer: 7335
Okay, sweet. Just took a bathroom break and then went to get a couple of cold Leine's. I'm ready for this. Also, let me give a premature thank you and shout out to the invention of tabs in internet browsers for making this possible.
Here we go. This week, Roger Federer competes in Stockholm, a 250 level tournament. He has a relatively easy draw, with the most difficult competition prior to the final being Stanislas Wawrinka. In the final, he would face either Robin Soderling or Tomas Berdych. I would favor him over both guys, but especially the Swede. Additionally, I would favor Robin over Tomas in their potential semi-final clash. Therefore, I will make the reasonable prediction that Roger Federer can and should win this tournament, adding 250 points to his total.
I just realized the real challenge here will be keeping this within Yahoo! Answers' "character limit."
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I read that Rafael Nadal does not plan on competing again until Paris and a quick check on different ATP tournaments' websites prior to that confirm such a notion. Meanwhile, Fed plans on playing in Basel, a 500 level tournament. This tournament would offer a much more difficult test for the Swiss than Stockholm; however, it is once again reasonable to predict his victory. I'm going to use the word "reasonable" a lot in this column because this is about being optimistic of Federer's rise while also retaining some realism. It is reasonable that Roger can beat Novak Djokovic in the final here, despite the Serb having won the 2009 final in Basel over Federer. The 3 and 4 seeds at this tournament, Berdych and Andy Roddick would offer challenging semifinals; however, Roger would be favored versus both. Once again, let's just say that Fed wins this tournament. It's not crazy to think he will. A win versus making the final last year means Roger would gain an extra 200 points.
After this, the BNP Paribas Masters comes up. For those of you who don't know, the tennis rankings are based on a 52 week rolling system. That is to say, a player's ranking is determined by a mathematical equation based on their results over the last 52 weeks. That is why you saw Andy Roddick's ranking drop so much after Wimbledon this year. He lost earlier in 2010 after making the final in 2009, so all the points he earned for making it that far in 2009 were not taken away until after the 2010 final. This is important to understand because, for the first of what is sure to be many times, we must compare Federer and Nadal's results at an earlier date to determine the likelihood of the Swiss's return to the top.
At the Paris Masters last year, Rafa made the semifinals, worth 360 points. Meanwhile, Roger lost in the second round to Julien Benneteau worth 45 points. Nadal will be fresh at this tournament, having not played for almost a month prior to its commencement. He does not always perform at his best on fast hard courts, particularly of the indoor variety and given his relative recent struggles, it is REASONABLE to suggest he may lose earlier than the semis this year, perhaps in the quarters, which would deduct 180 points from his total for an inferior result compared to his 2009 finish. Meanwhile, once again we are talking reasonable here... It is once again possible, albeit much less so than the smaller tournaments we've talked about so far, that Roger could win this tournament. Indoor hard courts are arguably his strongest surface. He has struggled at the Paris Open in the past, but once again, let me impress upon you that we are talking about whether or not it is possible. I won't predict something like Federer winning the season grand slam next year or Nadal getting suspended for testing positive for cocaine (Richard Gasquet anyone? No no no I'm joking, I believe his story and I wish he'd start playing well again consistently... But I digress), but predicting a win at a Masters 1000 tournament, especially on a favorable surface, is hardly unreasonable. So let's subtract 180 points from Nadal for a potential quarterfinal loss and add 955 to Fed for a possible victory in the tournament.
The World Tour Finals offer Rafa a chance to extend his lead and he will likely do so. The World Tour Finals are tricky, a player gets 1500 points for sweeping through the entire tournament without a loss. They receive 200 points for each Round Robin match that they win (Each plays three of these matches, so a maximum of 600). They then receive another 400 if they win in the semifinals, and then another 500 if they win the tournament. Last year, Nadal won no matches in London, meaning he has a big old bagel to defend. Roger made the semifinals, winning two Round Robin matches. This means that Federer has 400 points to defend. It is very likely Nadal will improve on his 2009 result. I'm going to say he wins two Round Robin matches, makes the semis, but loses to one of the players who has proven they can beat him on hardcourts consistently (Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Novak Djokovic). This means Rafa will gain 400 points. Now here, once again, I'm going to talk about possibility rather than likelihood. Roger Federer can win the Tour Finals. Of course he can, he's done it many times. But even I can't stretch this far. He probably won't win it, especially if he wins the three tournaments I've already marked him down to win leading up to it. Still, I think it's possible he'll make the final. So how's about 2 Round Robin wins and a semifinal win, meaning he too will gain 400 by virtue of his making the final, one step further than he got in 2009.
SO HERE'S WHERE WE'LL STAND AT THE END OF 2009 GIVEN THESE GENEROUS (For Roger) PROJECTIONS:
Rafael Nadal: 12100 (11880 - 180 + 400)
Roger Federer: 9140 (7335 + 250 + 200 + 955 + 400)
AND NOW FOR 2011. Holy cow, wow, it's almost 2011 already? For anyone who believes in that 2012 bullshit, I'd recommend working on that bucket list now... Freakin' Mayans... Haha.
This is also where it gets REALLY hazy because we can't predict the schedules of the two players, but it is once again REASONABLE to suggest they will play the same places as they did in 2010. They both started in Doha... Here we go.
Federer made the semifinals of this 250 level tournament before losing to Nikolay Davydenko who also then went on to take out Rafael Nadal in the final. Fed has 90 points to defend, Rafa has 150. Let's be optimistic here. Let's say the fans get treated wonderfully and the two make the final with Nadal winning. Rafa would gain 100 points, Fed would gain 60.
Moving on, the Australian Open... The last major hurdle in Fed having a real shot at taking the ranking back. He has 2000 points to defend, Nadal has only 360. This is what will make or break Roger having a real chance to take the top spot back. I don't want to get too into specifics here, but a lot of this also comes down to the draws and the matchups. For example, whichever guy has Novak Djokovic as his potential semifinal opponent has a much greater chance of making the final. Nole struggles in the heat of Melbourne. Meanwhile, Andy Murray has proven many times that he can take Rafa down on hardcourts (Fed too, but never in a Grand Slam). So matchups matter, but that is just getting too difficult to predict. I just said all that to cover my bases in case any of you hardcore people are reading this and waiting for me to address it (Yes Serbian Girl I'm talking to you :-P).
So anyways, disregarding potential match-ups, it's not unfathomable to predict that Nadal wins the tournament. At the same time, it's not crazy to suggest that Fed repeats either. That being said, at this point, I would say it's more likely that Rafa wins it than Fed, but MOST LIKELY that neither does. Men's tennis is simply too deep these days for anyone to be a shoe-in. I'm going to go ahead and say Rafa makes the semifinals while saying Roger gets knocked out at the same stage. This means that Nadal will gain 360 points while Roger will lose a whopping 1280.
FEBRUARY OF 2011 WILL SEE:
Nadal: 12560 (12100 + 100 + 360)
Federer: 7920 (9140 + 60 - 1280) It is worth noting that it is possible Roger may drop from #2 at this point in time.
Following Melbourne, both dudes will take some time off. Nadal may place Rotterdam. He did not in 2010 due to his knee issues, but did so in 2009, so if he's healthy, it's fair to say he will participate. This is a 500 level tournament and it is not crazy to suggest he will win it. Tally 500 more up for the Spaniard. Both guys withdrew from Dubai in 2010 for various ailments, Nadal for his knees, Fed for a lung infection. Let's say both participate in 2011. Dubai is a 500 level event that many top pros choose to play. The hard courts are still a problem for Nadal, at least more of one than any other surface, and big hitters that may be worn down later in the year will be fresh... Big hitters who tend to give Rafa problems. Let's say Rafa makes it to the quarters while Roger wins the tournament. Plus 500 for Roger, plus 90 for Rafa.
Now the first North American swing. Indian Wells sparks the beginning of Roger's first true chance at a comeback. Also, wow. Even I did not realize his potential road would be this arduous... And I'm being generous to Fed here. That Aussie Open projection really set him back. Anyways, in California, Fed was upset by Marcos Baghdatis in the third round, giving him a mere 90 points to defend while Rafa has 360 for a semifinal performance. Let's say Nadal repeats the impressive run, but once again falls victim to the fast courts and healthy big hitters. Meanwhile, Federer is looking to restore his reputation of dominance in North America, where he has produced, by his standards, inconsistent results as of late. The Swiss makes the final but loses to either Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic. Add 510 points for Roger, Nadal stays the same.
The Sony Ericsson Open in Miami is a nearly identical situation to its predecessor. Fed was upset by Berdych in the quarters last year. He has 180 points to guard, Rafa has 360 for making the semis. Let's say that Nadal improves upon his result, but only slightly, as he makes the final. And then let's make Florida's nightlife even better by having a Fed-Nadal final, the first on North American soil in (I have so many tabs open right now I'm not opening another, so I'm going to guess it's been like 5 years?). Fed wins. Add 820 for Roger and add 240 for Rafa.
SO HEADING INTO THE CLAYCOURT SEASON WE ARE HERE:
Nadal 13390 (12560 + 500 + 90 + 0 +240)
Federer 9810 (7980 + 500 + 510 + 820)
Wow, I'm being very generous to both guys in their results right now. If those two had those kinds of points the rankings would have to be as top heavy as they've been in decades.
The claycourt season... Here's Roger's chance. As good as Nadal is on clay, the simple mathematical fact is that it's almost impossible for him to improve his lead during this time of the year. Fed will have his chance, but it's an uphill climb... And think about it, can you think of a surface where an uphill climb would be harder than clay? That was kind of a lame one but cut me some slack... I've been at this awhile, I've got like nine empty beers to prove it. I was supposed to go to a party tonight! But shit fell through and now I'm bored. Weeee okay moving on.
Starting with Monte Carlo. Nadal won the tournament in 2010. Fed did not make an appearance. Okay so yeah, Rafa is borderline unbeatable on clay, especially of the slower variety. For those of you who don't know, there aren't only different types of hardcourts, there are different types of grass and clay too. Wimbledon's grass now is different than 10 years ago, ask anyone, especially Roger Federer. As for clay, Monte Carlo and Roland Garros probably have the slowest clay of the big tournaments. Meanwhile, the Madrid Masters and its "Magic Box" stadium boast much faster, harder clay. Anyways, the point is that Monte Carlo is perfect conditions for Rafa. Let's say he wins it again. Meanwhile, I'm going to predict, since Federer is arguably the second best clay court player in the world and even more likely probably the second best on a slower variety, let's say he's Nadal's victim in the final. Rafa gains zero, Roger gains 600.
Next, Rafa skipped Barcelona, a 500 level tournament, on advice of his trainers and doctors last year, but he loves his fans, too much to skip it two years in a row I think. He'll be there, and he'll win it. 500 more to Nadal. Federer won't play it.
Rome is next. Rafa won this tournament in 2010 as well while Roger was upset in the second round by Ernst Gulbis. I still can't believe that loss... I watched it live and still can't believe it. Ugh. Haha. Okay so this time around, let's say Nadal slips up a little bit. He'll be a little worn down by this point of the hectic year, so let's say he loses in the semis. People want to say he's unbeatable on clay, but he's not, it's just really hard to do it, but possible, and remember, we're being pretty optimistic for Federer in this piece. So how's about Rafa loses in the semis to somebody like Novak or Robin Soderling. And then let's say Roger wins the tournament. Take away 640 for Rafa, add 910 for Roger.
HALFWAY THROUGH THE CLAYCOURT SEASON, WITH THESE CONTINUED HOPEFUL (For Federer fans) PREDICTIONS:
Nadal 13250 (13390 + 0 + 500 - 640)
Federer 11320 (9810 + 600 + 910)
Next up for both guys will be the Madrid Masters. The two have met in two very fan-friendly finals the last two years and there's no reason to think that they won't again. Still, the faster, harder clay in Madrid makes an upset of Nadal more likely, but we already gave him one of those in Rome. Continuing to lean in Federer's camp, because if I wasn't there'd be no purpose to this whole damn thing, I'm going to say Roger beats Nadal in the final, their third straight meeting in Madrid. Add 400 points for Roger and take away 400 for Rafa.
ROLAND GARROS! Grand Slam time baby. Good, I was getting sick of the weird numbers involved in those little tournaments. The French Open is a little weird to predict, mostly because world No. 4 Andy Murray is seldom a major factor. Instead, he is replaced by Robin Soderling as a perennial favorite. Wait, I'm not supposed to talk about match-ups. Okay, well Roger lost in the quarterfinals last year, Nadal won the tournament. It's tempting to defend the possibility of Rafa being upset in this year's tournament. It's not unfathomable and based on the angle of this article, it is reasonable. But I'm not going to do it. Nadal wins the tournament again, but he has to go through Roger who offers a decent fight of it (4 sets, maybe a scoreline like 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2). Nadal gains nothing due to winning the tournament in 2010 while Fed gains 840 for such a vast improvement compared to the previous season.
AND THE CLAYCOURT SEASON ENDS WITH:
Nadal 12850 (13250 - 400 + 0)
Federer 12560 (11320 + 400 + 840)
Grass season time. Both dudes entered 250 events last year. Nadal lost in the quarterfinals at the Queen's Club to Feliciano Lopez, giving him a mere 45 points to defend. Fed lost in the final of Halle to Lleyton Hewitt, meaning he has 150 to guard. Let's say both guys win their respective titles. Rafa always plays Queens and Fed always plays Halle. I kind of like that they do that because it makes a potential Wimbledon final between the two have THAT much more build-up. So add 205 for Nadal and 100 for Roger.
And here we are at Wimbledon. This is where I really figured it was going to be decided. We've been pretty optimistic for both players so far up to this point but especially for Federer. Still, I don't think I've predicted Rafa to lose before the quarterfinals of any tournament so far, and I certainly think it's possible that such a thing will happen. He may not play all of the events that I have him chalked up as competing in either due to his constant nagging knees. Additionally, it's possible that his body breaks down again. Let's pray to God it doesn't, but in 2008 he dominated and then 2009 he was gone. It seems possible, despite the tragic nature of such an event, that 2010 and 2011 could continue the terrible pattern. But anyways, here we are at the All-England Club. Breathe in the smell of freshly cut grass, listen to the birds overhead. Enjoy the temperate climate of London, but make sure to bring an umbrella. We haven't had much rain during the tournament in the last two years here, but Mother Nature is a fickle mistress. The buzz may be all about Andy Murray again, but if my predictions hold up, Fed and Nadal will be the main story outside of the United Kingdom. With Rafa winning the tournament last year and Roger being knocked out in the quarters, this tournament pretty much decides who will be No. 1 after they both fly out of London following their respective exits from the tournament. Additionally, whoever leaves Wimbledon No. 1 will remain at the spot for at least a month, as neither ever competes again until the Rogers Cup which does not happen until August.
Before I get to the Wimbledon predictions, let's update quickly based on the AEGEON Championships and Gerry Weber Open.
Nadal 13055 (12850 + 205)
Federer 12660 (12560 + 100)
First off, let me say this right away. If Roger Federer makes the final, something he did for seven straight years before 2010's shocking upset at the hands of Berdych playing the match of his life as well as Fed's nagging injuries, he will be No. 1 leaving England, regardless of what Nadal does. Still, Rafael Nadal hasn't lost a match at the All-England Club since 2007. He didn't play it in 2009. He also hasn't lost a match prior to the final since 2005 which is utterly ridiculous. He has been nearly as dominant on grass as Federer ever was. Everyone will be hoping for it, and it's not ridiculous to imagine... A Fed and Nadal final. Other situations in which Roger could take No. 1 from the Spaniard would include if Rafa fails to win the tournament and Roger at least makes it to the quarterfinals. Rafael Nadal basically has to win Wimbledon, if my predictions up until this point are right, if he wants to leave England as the world No. 1. If he doesn't, even if Roger Federer didn't play the tournament, he would pass Rafa. Even if Nadal does win the tournament though, as was aforementioned, if Roger makes the final, he passes Rafa. Here's what I actually think will happen though. Remember, if you ask me and most people I think, they will still say that Wimbledon is Federer's palace. I'm going to say Roger wins the tournament, and I'm not even trying to play the angle of the story that I'm taking anymore. I legitimately would put money on Fed re-gaining the title that means the most to him. In contrast, as much as I would love to see another epic Fed-Nadal Wimbledon final, I think that Rafa will be knocked out of the tournament in the semifinals, probably at the hands of either Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, or Novak Djokovic. Federer gains 1640, Nadal loses 1280. If the Spaniard makes the final, I think that we're in for a treat, but I still would take the Swiss. Wimbledon brings out a different level Fed (Disregarding the outlier due to his health issues in 2010), than everywhere else.
And so here it is. No caps this time. It's over. I'm way over the character limit but maybe they changed this policy or something. I hope. If not, I don't know what I'm going to do with this lol. But here it is. Here is how, influenced by plausibility but optimized by slight bias, Roger Federer can re-gain the title of World No. 1. If everything up to here holds up, here's what you'll see on July 4th, 2011.
Roger Federer 14300 (12660 + 1640)
Rafael Nadal 11755 (13055 - 1280)
As you can see, so much depends on the Grand Slams. They offer an unbelievable swing in points both ways. Just as Federer will lose so much ground at the Australian Open, so too can he gain so much at the French and Wimbledon, even if Rafa puts up great results.
It's possible. But it's a long road, and it's going to take either sustained health and consistent quality play from Fed the likes of which we haven't seen since 2009 (At least making SFs and Finals in every tournament he plays), or another major injury to Rafa for it to happen.
Here's to an exciting finish to 2010 and a wonderful 2011. I plan on doing this type of thing on Yahoo! Answers more often for anyone who wants to subscribe to me or whatever Yahoo! Answers' version of doing so is. Cheers everyone. That was fun. For other sports writing by me, check out www.riponcollegedays.com, the college newspaper that I am the Editor-in-Chief of.
